Statistics — three ways into the same career, all modelled to age 65.
Solid lines are net worth in today's money (central estimate). The dashed line marks the age the degree ends and a graduate career starts. University starts in the red (debt) while the other routes earn sooner.
University
£1,051,862
net worth at 65 (central)
£689,986–£1,740,545
3 yrs training
starts on £30,000
mid-career £48,000
£42,750 debt
Apprenticeship
£1,059,433
net worth at 65 (central)
£695,628–£1,757,185
4 yrs training
earning £19,000/yr
starts on £25,500
mid-career £45,600
Work now
£688,785
net worth at 65 (central)
£449,891–£1,168,758
starts on £19,500
mid-career £36,000
The break-even
University overtakes work now at age 21 — before that, the school-leaver route is ahead because it has no debt and 3 extra years of earnings.
Apprenticeship overtakes work now at age 18, earning while training the whole way.
Going to university means giving up roughly £2,088 in savings the "work now" route would have built by age 21 — plus £42,750 in student debt.
How we worked this out
All three routes use the same model and the same central assumptions (50% of spare income saved, 4% real returns, UK tax, a 10% deposit and a 25-year mortgage). The only differences are the training years, training income, debt and starting salary.
University figures are the published Statistics graduate salaries. Apprenticeship and work-now salaries are estimates derived from the graduate figures — a degree apprenticeship pays about £19,000 while training and starts around 85% of the graduate salary; work now starts lower and grows slower.