How the numbers are worked out

Everything on this site is an estimate, not a promise. This page explains the model, the assumptions behind it, and where the data comes from.

1. The model in one paragraph

For each degree we project a career from graduation to age 65. Every year we take the salary, deduct UK income tax, national insurance and student loan repayments, then subtract rent (or mortgage payments once a house is bought) and other living costs. What is left is your spare income. A fixed share of it is saved and grows at a real investment return; the rest is spent. On top of that, home equity builds as the mortgage is paid down. The result is a projected net worth at every age.

2. Optimistic, central and cautious

No one knows how a career will turn out, so we run the model three ways and show you the spread rather than one over-confident number:

• Optimistic — strong career progression, 6% real investment returns, lower living costs.
• Central — typical career progression, 4% real returns, average living costs.
• Cautious — slower career progression, 1.5% real returns, higher living costs.

The solid line on each degree page is the central estimate. The shaded band is the cautious-to-optimistic range.

3. The assumptions

• Savings rate — 50% of spare income saved (you can adjust this with the slider).
• Investment return — 4% a year after inflation (central).
• Housing — you rent until you have saved a 10% deposit, then buy with a 25-year mortgage at 5%.
• Living costs — £9,000 a year for a single adult in the UK, excluding housing (ONS).
• Student loans — England Plan 5: 9% of earnings above £25,000, written off after 40 years.
• Tax — UK 2024/25 income tax and national insurance.
• Inflation — 2.5% a year (used only for the "with inflation" line).
• House prices and rent — UK averages: £285,000 and £900 a month (ONS).

4. Where the salary figures come from

Starting salaries are the median from the HESA Graduate Outcomes survey (15 months after graduation). Mid-career figures draw on DfE LEO (Longitudinal Education Outcomes) and ONS ASHE.

Where a subject has no published figure, we use a rounded estimate in line with its subject group, and mark it as an estimate on the degree page. Figures from a specific published survey are shown with their source; estimates are labelled "estimated from subject group".

5. What this does not model

This is a simplification. It does not model unemployment, career breaks, part-time work, changing jobs mid-career, regional salary differences, children, or investment risk. Treat the numbers as a rough guide to compare options, not a forecast of your own life.

6. Projections, not promises

The projected figures are model outputs, clearly different from observed earnings. Observed figures (starting and mid-career salaries) come from published surveys and are the inputs; everything else is a projection built on the assumptions above.